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Time Series Forecasts of Non-Farm Payrolls

This data contains the results of a time-series model used to estimate Non-Farm Payrolls and available before the date of the official release. The following is a sample:

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Period End Date |2/29/20 |3/31/20
Series ID |PAYEMS| PAYEMS
Model Name |Time Series Model |Time Series Model
Estimated Value |152487.6339 |152790.0196
Estimate Std. Error |147.150006 |146.57955
Survey Sample Size|||
Final Release| 152544 ||
Error |-56.366128 ||
Z Score |-0.383052162 ||

The data contains the reference period end date, the central estimate, the standard error, the sample size, the final released comparable official statistic (when available and as revised by the issuer). The data is monthly and is revised whenever new data is available, which is approximately monthly and always before the official release date . The model is was trained on data from 1939 to 2015 and all published data is out-of-sample. Data is seasonally adjusted and data is published starting with the first out-of-sample month. The units of measure match those of the officially reported data (thousands of persons). Out-of-sample the model has a mean forward prediction error of +7.108 and a standard deviation of those errors of 88.716. The error on the mean is 0.814 for a sample size of 53 out-of-sample predictions.

This data is from a model constructed by Giller Investments (New Jersey), LLC (d/b/a Giller Investments). The results of the model may be used as an input to proprietary trading activity. Estimates of economic statistics may change after this data is published due to revisions by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This data is not for distribution to third parties other than the individual named subscriber and if that subscriber is not a real person usage is restricted to one real person associated with the subscribing entity. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is subject to revision by the BLS in the months following initial release. The data is intended to provide general contextual information about the state of the U.S. economy and any use of the data at the subscriber’s own risk. This data does not represent investment advice and should not be treated as such. Giller Investments reserves the right to publish this data from time-to-time via other channels and to withdraw it from publication at any time.

Heapery Attribution License Heapery-Private
Category
Data Schema
Support Contact Email Address support@heapery.com
Data Format
Version number
Language English
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Last Updated Date 8/11/2020
Refund Policy Refunds not allowed